Precious Metals Extend Rally on Rising Geopolitical and Trade Risks

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Gold and silver climbed to fresh record highs, with gold touching $4,698 (~₹1,45,500) and silver reaching $94.36 (~₹3,01,300), as investors rushed into safe-haven assets amid a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions. The move was triggered after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on European countries over control of Greenland.

The announcement drew swift criticism from European officials and raised fears of a wider transatlantic trade dispute. Trump warned that tariffs could rise to 25% by June if no agreement is reached. Combined with already elevated geopolitical risks, the rhetoric reignited global risk aversion, driving investors toward traditional safe havens like gold and silver. U.S. stock futures and the dollar weakened, while the yen and Swiss franc also benefited. European Union ambassadors have since agreed to step up diplomatic efforts to dissuade the U.S. from imposing tariffs, while preparing retaliatory measures if talks fail.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated elsewhere as well. Iran warned that any attack on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could trigger an all-out war with the U.S. Meanwhile, the Russia–Ukraine conflict continues to intensify, with Ukraine’s foreign minister citing evidence that Russia may be considering strikes near nuclear-linked infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelensky said recent attacks suggest Moscow is not interested in diplomacy.

Silver has gained nearly 30% year-to-date, attracting strong speculative interest from both buyers and sellers, leading to sharp and erratic price swings. Physical tightness is showing early signs of easing as silver flows back from COMEX warehouses to Europe, while high prices may temper industrial demand. However, speculative appetite in China remains strong, with Shanghai prices trading almost $10 above London.

Markets now turn their attention to the U.S. PCE inflation data and the final Q3 GDP print for fresh direction. Even so, the broader fundamental backdrop continues to favor gold and silver bulls, keeping the case for further gains intact.

The gold boom began in mid-August, around $3400, and reached $4400 by mid-October. The prices then retraced and have been taking support from the uptrendline since. Gold is heading towards next resistance of $4750-60 (78.6% fibonnicci extension) (~Rs 147000) and $4990-5000 (100% fibonnicci extension) (~Rs 155,000).

As suggested last week, Silver has touched the 61.8% Fibonnicci resistance target of $93(~Rs 300,000). Next level to watch for is 78.6% Fibonnici extension of $99.2-100 (~Rs 320,000) and 100% fibonnicci extension of $107(~Rs 340,000). Strong support lies at $86.5 (~Rs 285,000).

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